The longer term picture may not be suitable for immediate short term trades but it does give historical background. Looking at the QQQQ's 10 year monthly chart shows the same Bearish/Bullish Zone for the Oscillator. This time Slow Stockastics is used. This idea was explained by Connie Brown in her book, "Technical Analysis for Trading Professionals".
One can see that the Oscillator stayed primarily in the oversold zone during the last bear market and stayed upwards during the subsequent Bull cycle. It is again hugging the lower boundry of the range.
QQQQ Monthly
The same picture is seen in SPY.
SPY Monthly
While looking at the daily chart of the cubes, we see that it did manage to jump across one level of resistance ($31.60) but bounced again the next level ($35.25) which goes back to 7-18-06.
31.60 level should provide support now. If the upward trend resumes, 35.25 level needs to be broken with high volume (> 200 M), the gap needs to close with a close above $36.07. That will be a sign of strength.
QQQQ Daily
Sunday, May 17, 2009
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