One of the concepts that Connie Brown outlines in her marvellous book, "Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional" is that of Oscillator ranges. In short watch the RSI level (blue line below) of 38.48 on the SPY. If that holds and the RSI bounces from there, the trend of the SPY (and $SPX) will be bullish. But if that level breaks then one can infer that the Bear days are back again for some time.
Now this is not a short term trading tool but do remember to look it up when the time comes. When we will be at that level, the "Experts" will be divided and will be telling their story from their side of the fence and some from the fence. This can add objectivity into the mix and clarify things.
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